Possible reasons for conflict, will it lead to WWIII?

Troubles on the Korean Peninsula

Daniel Mermelstein, Howl Staff

On November 22, North and South Korea had a cross-border artillery exchange that resulted in the deaths of four South Koreans: two marines and two civilians. According to the North’s state-controlled media, the exchange was brought about by a South Korean artillery drill that was directed across the border.  North Korea then proceeded to shell the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, a vicinity with a large civilian population.  This is the first attack on a civilian area since the Korean War ended in 1953. The political situation right now is tense not only between the two Koreas, but also between China and the United States, who both exert contrary political influence in this geographical region.  What kind of outcome can we expect?

Interestingly, the week following this incident China announced that they would not view a US-South Korean show of force in the Yellow Sea as a threat, so long as the combined military force did not enter Chinese waters. This is a possible indication that North Korea’s actions were not sanctioned by Beijing, and Chinese military backing of the fellow communist regime in a new conflict is not a certainty.

Despite the lack of hard Chinese support, North Korea might still launch into a war with the South. A factor to contemplate is the impending power succession in North Korea. The heir-apparent is Kim Jong-un, Kim Jong-il’s youngest son. The North may indeed view the artillery exchange and other recent international incidents, including the March 26 sinking of the South Korean warship ROKS Cheonan, as a beefing-up of North Korea’s international profile in preparation for the eventual transfer of power. Indeed, inside sources from the NK regime have indicated that Kim Jong-un’s two elder brothers have already been discounted as possible successors.

This past October marked the 65th anniversary celebration of North Korea’s Workers’ Party; Kim Jong-un’s attendance and the unprecedented access granted to the international press indicate the importance of his presence at this event. It may as well have been his debutante party.

Kim Jong-un grew up in Europe and was purportedly educated in Switzerland. Growing up away from the party and the people, his ostensibly unmerited and sudden elevation to the rank of 4-star general in the [North] Korean People’s Army, despite his lack of experience and the fact that he is currently only about 26 years old, most likely do not currently provide him with a wide base of support from the people or the army.  Therefore, an intensification of the tension between North and South Korea provides Kim Jong-il with the perfect opportunity to tutor Kim Jong-un and fashion a reputation for his son that will provide the People’s Army’s support past Jong-il’s death.

The danger in this game is, of course, an actual outbreak of war. What is unclear is if North Korea believes true retaliation will not occur, or whether it is their intention to provoke a conflagration.  Though war between the Koreas might indeed happen, the scale, duration, and even whether or not there is war will depend heavily on the political decisions made by the United States and China.

The situation on the Korean Peninsula is a remnant of Cold War ideologies, but the lines in the sand have faded over time; soon we will know which side of the line the China of today stands on.